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What will The Year of the Ox bring you?

12 February 2021

Valentina Tacchino, Head of International

Happy Year of the Ox! This is a very special year for LGT, as we are celebrating 100 successful years since we were founded. As Chinese New Year celebrations this year are curbed by current restrictions, we hope for a return to normal celebrations in the future. In the wake of this crisis, we hope to have reinforced our grit and determination. We wish you and your families much happiness and, above all, good health and resilience in the Year of the Ox.

In the Chinese zodiac, The Year of the Ox symbolises hard work, reliability and determination.

A year has passed since COVID-19 was discovered in Wuhan, China. In 2020, Massachusetts Institute of Technology published a paper entitled “Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not”.[1] Examining America’s response to the 1918 influenza pandemic, they concluded that cities that acted early and forcefully had the best economic outcomes. By imposing strict controls, these cities were able to limit the damage to public health and ultimately bounced back quicker. Meanwhile, those that delayed such measures could not escape the pandemic’s shadow.

Drawing parallels with COVID-19, the Chinese Government's early and decisive action was key, demonstrated by China's economic performance. According to The World Bank estimates, China’s GDP expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% in 2020 as a whole. [2] It is China’s weakest growth rate since 1976, the final year of the Cultural Revolution. More impressive yet is China’s momentum. In the fourth quarter of 2020, growth accelerated to 6.5% year-on-year, faster than its pre-COVID-19 rate. By contrast, the global economy declined by 4.3%. As we move away from the tumultuous Year of the Rat, we consider what the Year of the Ox may have in stock, after so much uncertainty in 2020.

Hard work

We are cautiously optimistic that the end is now in sight. Vaccines that fight off the infection have been developed and approved in record time. The UK became the first country to start inoculating people on 8 December 2020. Others have swiftly followed suit and now more than 50 countries have active vaccination programmes.[3] Collectively, they have given over 50 million inoculations to residents. The US, China, the UK and Israel are the countries where vaccinations are advancing more rapidly, underpinning their determination to deliver a long-term solution.

Reliability

In the UK, uncertainty dominated 2020 – with the pandemic, economic growth deceleration and impending Brexit with a potential 'no deal'. However, now the UK shows signs of improvement: a Brexit deal was reached on 24 December 2020 allowing for free flow of trade (but with more paperwork) and 18% of the UK population have received the first dose of the vaccine.[4] The Bank of England expects a powerful rebound later this year as household savings have increased and consumers are eager to spend these savings to enjoy leisure activities.[5]

In the US, following the unpredictable Trump presidency, the Biden administration has clearly indicated its key priorities: the pandemic, climate change and seeking unity.

Determination

While 2020 will have a lasting impact on us all, as a business we are proud to have continued operating effectively and serving our clients at the high standard towards which we strive. We are hopeful that the vaccination roll-out will pave the way for a return to normality and allow a greater degree of international mobility for our clients and society.

[1] Correia, Sergio and Luck, Stephan and Verner, Emil, Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu (June 5, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3561560 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3561560

[2] National Bureau of Statistics, 18 Jan 2021

[3] Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Joe Hasell (2020) - "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. 8 Feb 2021

[4] Public Health England, 8 Feb 2021

[5] Bank of England, Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 3 February 2021


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This communication is provided for information purposes only. The information presented herein provides a general update on market conditions and is not intended and should not be construed as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any specific investment or participate in any investment (or other) strategy. The subject of the communication is not a regulated investment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance and the value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and you may not receive back the amount you originally invest. Although this document has been prepared on the basis of information we believe to be reliable, LGT Vestra LLP gives no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented herein. The information presented herein does not provide sufficient information on which to make an informed investment decision. No liability is accepted whatsoever by LGT Vestra LLP, employees and associated companies for any direct or consequential loss arising from this document.

LGT Vestra LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom.

您希望牛年能为您带来什么?

Valentina Tacchino, LGT Vestra LLP国际部主管

祝大家牛年快乐! 对于LGT来说,这是非常特殊的一年,今年是LGT成立了100年的周年庆。 今年的农历新年庆祝活动受到了当前疫情影响的限制,但我们希望在不久的将来,正常的庆祝活动能够尽快恢复。在这次危机之后,我们希望能够加强我们的毅力和决心。我们希望您和您的家人牛年幸福,最重要的是,身体健康!

在中国的十二生肖中,牛年象征着勤奋,可靠和决心。

距离在中国武汉发现新型冠状病毒sars-cov-2以来,已经过去一年了。 回顾过去,总体来说,亚洲非常出色地处理了这次紧急情况。2020年,麻省理工学院发表了一篇题为《流行病抑制经济,而非公共卫生干预》的论文。 他们考察了美国对1918年爆发的流感大流行的反应,得出的结论是,早期并大力度地采取对策及措施的城市能够取得较好的经济成果。而那些较晚采取对策及措施的城市则很难摆脱大流行病的阴影:人们限制消费,企业限制投资。相比之下,那些严格采取对策的城市削弱了公共卫生所受到的损害,并能够尽早恢复。

与COVID-19相似,中国政府快速果断的行动力是关键,这一点在中国的经济表现中也得到了体现。 根据世界银行的估算,2020年,中国的GDP全年平均增长2.3%。 这是自1976年文化大革命的以来中国GDP增长最弱的一年。 但中国的发展势头令人印象深刻。到2020年第四季度,同比增长加速至6.5%,快于上一季度的增长率。 相比之下,全球经济下降了4.3%。 动荡的鼠年已经过去,在经历了2020年的不确定性之后,我们在思考牛年将会如何。

勤奋

我们对前景持谨慎乐观的态度。12月8日,英国成为第一个开始接种疫苗的国家,其他国家也迅速效仿。现有50多个国家/地区正在实施有效的疫苗接种计划,目前已有超过5,000万株疫苗被居民集体接种。 美国,中国,英国和以色列是疫苗接种速度最快的国家,这为他们寻求长期解决方案提供了支持。

可靠

在英国,不确定性占据了2020年的主导地位,主要原因是大流行病,经济增长放缓和英国‘无协议脱欧’的可能。而现在英国出现了改善的迹象:英国于2020年12月24日达成了脱欧协议,协议允许贸易的自由流通(但需要更多的合同文书)。此外,英国18%的人口已经接种了第一剂疫苗。 英格兰银行(Bank of England)预计今年下半年经济将有强劲反弹,原因是家庭储蓄的增加,而消费者希望将这些储蓄用于休闲活动。

在美国,在特朗普卸任总统之后,拜登政府明确地表示了他们的优先事项:大流行病,气候变化和寻求团结合作。

决心 

尽管2020这一年对我们所有人有较长且持久的影响,但我们公司为能够继续高效地运营,追求高标准的服务而感到自豪。我们希望,疫苗的推出将为恢复人们的正常生活铺平道路,并为我们的客户和社会提供更大程度的国际流动性。

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